On Tuesday, the United Nations issued a statement warning that a potential Ebola outbreak could have severe economic and social consequences for Africa, with estimated costs reaching up to $3.6 billion and resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs, thereby potentially triggering a profound development crisis.
The recent outbreak of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no proven vaccine or treatment currently exists, has already infected 1,307 individuals and claimed the lives of 377 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo since its official declaration on May 15, according to government reports.
In contrast, a significantly smaller number of cases have been reported in Uganda, and experts are cautioning about the possibility of the disease spreading to neighboring countries, such as South Sudan, which could exacerbate the situation.
According to Damien Mama, the resident representative of the United Nations Development Programme in Congo, “If we possess the necessary resources and take immediate action, we can effectively contain this outbreak and prevent further losses.” However, he also emphasized that “if we fail to do so, this health emergency risks evolving into a more profound and prolonged development crisis that could affect the entire region and potentially the continent.”
The United Nations Development Programme has outlined three possible scenarios for the outbreak. In the most optimistic scenario, where the epidemic remains confined to the two affected countries, the estimated cost to Congo’s GDP would be $1 billion, as stated in the report.
In the worst-case scenario, where the disease spreads to additional countries, including Rwanda and Angola, and coincides with increased fuel costs linked to the Iran crisis, the projected cost to the continental GDP could reach $3.6 billion, resulting in 328,000 job losses, according to the report.
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